DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2767-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937903506
论文题名: The role of ENSO and PDO in variability of winter precipitation over North America from twenty first century CMIP5 projections
作者: Fuentes-Franco R. ; Giorgi F. ; Coppola E. ; Kucharski F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3259
结束页码: 3277
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; ENSO
; Interannual variability
; North America
; PDO
; Precipitation
英文摘要: We investigate the combined impact of ENSO and PDO on North American winter climate in current and future climate projections from 11 global models in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset. We first analyze winter sea surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation anomalies for the historical period 1951–2005, and find that the CMIP5 models reproduce well the constructive interference between ENSO and the PDO compared to observations (i.e. positive ENSO and PDO or negative ENSO and PDO). On the other hand, the destructive interference (positive ENSO and negative PDO or negative ENSO and positive PDO) is less accurately reproduced. Consistently with observations, ENSO events show generally more impact on North American winter climate than PDO events, although there is a robust increase of rainfall in the Southeastern US during the negative PDO phase. For the twenty first century projections, we focus on the 2050–2099 period under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario and we find an overall strengthening of both the ENSO and PDO signals, and particularly the PDO one, on the SLP and related teleconnections. This results in an enhanced influence of the negative PDO phase on flood conditions in the Southeastern United States, and in drier conditions over the Southwest coasts of North America. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53765
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Fuentes-Franco R.,Giorgi F.,Coppola E.,et al. The role of ENSO and PDO in variability of winter precipitation over North America from twenty first century CMIP5 projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-09-10)