DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2642-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957433252
论文题名: How well do CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?
作者: Seiler C. ; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1241
结束页码: 1256
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 climate models
; Explosive cyclones
; Model biases
英文摘要: Extratropical explosive cyclones are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems with severe wind speeds and heavy precipitation, affecting livelihoods and infrastructure primarily in coastal and marine environments. This study evaluates how well the most recent generation of climate models reproduces extratropical explosive cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1980–2005. An objective-feature tracking algorithm is used to identify and track cyclones from 25 climate models and three reanalysis products. Model biases are compared to biases in the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, the polar jet stream, the Eady growth rate, and model resolution. Most models accurately reproduce the spatial distribution of explosive cyclones when compared to reanalysis data (R = 0.94), with high frequencies along the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream. Three quarters of the models however significantly underpredict explosive cyclone frequencies, by a third on average and by two thirds in the worst case. This frequency bias is significantly correlated with jet stream speed in the inter-model spread (R ≥ 0.51), which in the Atlantic is correlated with a negative meridional SST gradient (R = −0.56). The importance of the jet stream versus other variables considered in this study also applies to the interannual variability of explosive cyclone frequency. Furthermore, models with fewer explosive cyclones tend to underpredict the corresponding deepening rates (R ≥ 0.88). A follow-up study will assess the impacts of climate change on explosive cyclones, and evaluate how model biases presented in this study affect the projections. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53848
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, University House 1, PO Box 1700 Stn CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Seiler C.,Zwiers F.W.. How well do CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-03-04)