DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2578-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955625336
论文题名: Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin
作者: Photiadou C. ; van den Hurk B. ; van Delden A. ; Weerts A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 187
结束页码: 203
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias correction
; Circulation patterns
; Maximum Covariance Analysis
; Seasonal discharges
英文摘要: An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to flooding events in the basin. Large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) are obtained through Maximum Covariance Analysis using reanalysis sea level pressure and high-resolution precipitation observations. A bias correction using these CPs is applied to winter and summer separately, acknowledging the seasonal variability of the circulation regimes in North Europe and their correlation with regional precipitation rates over the Rhine basin. Two different climate model ensemble outputs are explored: ESSENCE and CMIP5. The results of the CP-method are then compared to observations and uncorrected model outputs. Results from a simple bias correction based on a delta factor (NoCP-method) are also used for comparison. For both summer and winter, the CP-method offers a statistically significant improvement of precipitation statistics for subsets of data dominated by particular circulation regimes, demonstrating the circulation-dependence of the precipitation bias. Uncorrected, CP and NoCP corrected model outputs were used as forcing to a hydrological model to simulate river discharges. The CP-method leads to a larger improvement in simulated discharge in the Alpine area in winter than in summer due to a stronger dependence of Rhine precipitation on atmospheric circulation in winter. However, the NoCP-method, in comparison to the CP-method, improves the discharge estimations over the entire Rhine basin. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53876
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, P.O Box 80.005, Utrecht, Netherlands; Deltares, P.O Box 177, Delft, Netherlands; KNMI, P.O. Box 201, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Photiadou C.,van den Hurk B.,van Delden A.,et al. Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-01-02)