DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2587-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955741314
论文题名: Twenty-first century changes in snowfall climate in Northern Europe in ENSEMBLES regional climate models
作者: Räisänen J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 339
结束页码: 353
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate projection
; ENSEMBLES
; Extreme snowfall
; Northern Europe
; Regional climate model
; Snowfall
英文摘要: Changes in snowfall in northern Europe (55–71°N, 5–35°E) are analysed from 12 regional model simulations of twenty-first century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. As an ensemble mean, the models suggest a decrease in the winter total snowfall in nearly all of northern Europe. In the middle of the winter, however, snowfall generally increases in the coldest areas. The borderline between increasing and decreasing snowfall broadly coincides with the −11 °C isotherm in baseline (1980–2010) monthly mean temperature, although with variation between models and grid boxes. High extremes of daily snowfall remain nearly unchanged, except for decreases in the mildest areas, where snowfall as a whole becomes much less common. A smaller fraction of the snow in the simulated late twenty-first century climate falls on severely cold days and a larger fraction on days with near-zero temperatures. Not only do days with low temperatures become less common, but they also typically have more positive anomalies of sea level pressure and less snowfall for the same temperature than in the present-day climate. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53892
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48, Erik Palménin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Räisänen J.. Twenty-first century changes in snowfall climate in Northern Europe in ENSEMBLES regional climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-01-02)