DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2548-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947488357
论文题名: Stochastic atmospheric perturbations in the EC-Earth3 global coupled model: impact of SPPT on seasonal forecast quality
作者: Batté L. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3419
结束页码: 3439
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ensemble forecasting
; Seasonal climate forecasting
; Stochastic physics
英文摘要: Atmospheric model uncertainties at a seasonal time scale can be addressed by introducing stochastic perturbations in the model formulation. In this paper the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) technique is activated in the atmospheric component of the EC-Earth global coupled model and the impact on seasonal forecast quality is assessed, both at a global scale and focusing on the Tropical Pacific region. Re-forecasts for winter and summer seasons using two different settings for the perturbation patterns are evaluated and compared to a reference experiment without stochastic perturbations. We find that SPPT tends to increase the systematic error of the model sea-surface temperature over most regions of the globe, whereas the impact on precipitation and sea-level pressure is less clear. In terms of ensemble spread, larger-scale perturbation patterns lead to a greater increase in spread and in the model spread-skill ratio in a system that is overconfident. Over the Tropical Pacific, improvements in the representation of key processes associated with ENSO are highlighted. The evaluation of probabilistic re-forecasts shows that SPPT improves their reliability. Finally, we discuss the limitations to this study and future prospects with EC-Earth. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53916
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: CNRM-GAME, UMR Météo-France/CNRS, 42 avenue G. Coriolis, Toulouse Cedex, France; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Batté L.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.. Stochastic atmospheric perturbations in the EC-Earth3 global coupled model: impact of SPPT on seasonal forecast quality[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-11-12)