DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2412-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929710331
论文题名: ENSO in CMIP5 simulations: network connectivity from the recent past to the twenty-third century
作者: Fountalis I. ; Bracco A. ; Dovrolis C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 511
结束页码: 538
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 models comparison
; ENSO
; Future projections
; Historical experiments
; Network analysis
英文摘要: A new methodology based on complex network analysis is applied to state-of-the-art climate model simulations to assess their performances, quantify uncertainties, and uncover changes in global linkages between past and future projections. Network properties of modeled sea surface temperature and precipitation over 1956–2005 are constrained towards observations or reanalyses, and their differences quantified using two metrics. Projected changes from 2051 to 2300 under the scenario with the highest representative and extended concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and ECP8.5) are then determined. The network of models capable of reproducing well major climate modes in the recent past, change little during this century. In contrast, among those models the uncertainties in the projections after 2100 are substantial, and are primarily associated with divergences in the representation of the modes of variability, particularly of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and their connectivity, and therefore with their intrinsic predictability, more so than with differences in the mean state evolution. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53935
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fountalis I.,Bracco A.,Dovrolis C.. ENSO in CMIP5 simulations: network connectivity from the recent past to the twenty-third century[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-01-02)