DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2401-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929712287
论文题名: Multi-week prediction of South-East Asia rainfall variability during boreal summer in CFSv2
作者: Liu R.-F. ; Wang W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 493
结束页码: 509
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
; Intraseasonal variability
; Monthly forecast
; Multi-week prediction
英文摘要: In this paper we analyze the multi-week prediction bias and skill from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts for 1999–2012. The analyses focus on the prediction of the rainfall variability over South-East Asia during boreal warm seasons and the dependence of the prediction on the activity of intrasesaonal leading modes. It is shown that the prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation is comparable between the total anomalies and intraseasonal anomalies during the first 2 weeks. After week 2, the prediction skill drops substantially and the skill for total anomalies is largely from the prediction for the interannual variability. Moreover, the forecast skill tends to be higher when the amplitude of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is larger, especially for the BSISO. It is noted that the prediction skill over South-East Asia depends on the phase of the BSISO. One deficiency in the CFSv2 is that the northward propagation of the forecast BSISO is generally slower than the observed. © 2014, Springer-Verlag (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53938
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taipei, Taiwan; CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, 5830 University Research Court, Room 3004, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu R.-F.,Wang W.. Multi-week prediction of South-East Asia rainfall variability during boreal summer in CFSv2[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-01-02)