DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946484163
论文题名: Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings
作者: Andres H.J. ; Peltier W.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2919
结束页码: 2936
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate reconstructions
; Climate variability
; Global simulations
; Greenland
; Industrial period
英文摘要: We attribute climate variability in four independent reconstructions of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation over the twentieth century. The reconstructions exhibit substantial differences in the timing and amplitudes of climate variations. Linear, empirical models of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation variations on multi-decadal timescales are established from a suite of Community Climate System Model 3 simulations of the preindustrial millennium. They are compared against observational reconstructions after being tested against simulations of the industrial and future periods. Empirical estimates of variations over the industrial and future periods are correlated at greater than 0.95 with simulated values. Greenhouse gas increases account for the majority of the temperature and precipitation increases after the mid-1900s. In contrast to the simulations, observed temperatures and precipitation do not increase until the mid-1990s. Thus, the empirical models over-predict the response to greenhouse gases over the twentieth century. We conclude that CCSM3 is not capturing processes that are proving important to Greenland surface conditions. Furthermore, modes of North Atlantic variability exhibit opposite relationships with some observations compared with the simulations. In those cases, reversing the sign of this component of variability yields significant correlations between the estimated and observed accumulation values. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: CFI, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
; DOE, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
; NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
; NOAA, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
; OAR, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53967
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Andres H.J.,Peltier W.R.. Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-09-10)