DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2335-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929709999
论文题名: Potential predictability of Northern America surface temperature in AGCMs and CGCMs
作者: Tang Y. ; Chen D. ; Yan X.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 353
结束页码: 374
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ensemble predictions
; Potential predictability
; Seasonal climate prediction
英文摘要: In this study, the potential predictability of the Northern America (NA) surface air temperature (SAT) was explored using an information-based predictability framework and two multiple model ensemble products: a one-tier prediction by coupled models (T1), and a two-tier prediction by atmospheric models only (T2). Furthermore, the potential predictability was optimally decomposed into different modes for both T1 and T2, by extracting the most predictable structures. Emphasis was placed on the comparison of the predictability between T1 and T2. It was found that the potential predictability of the NA SAT is seasonal and spatially dependent in both T1 and T2. Higher predictability occurs in spring and winter and over the southeastern US and northwestern Canada. There is no significant difference of potential predictability between T1 and T2 for most areas of NA, although T1 has higher potential predictability than T2 in the southeastern US. Both T1 and T2 display similar most predictable components (PrCs) for the NA SAT, characterized by the inter-annual variability mode and the long-term trend mode. The first one is inherent to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forcing, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, whereas the second one is closely associated with global warming. In general, the PrC modes can better characterize the predictability in T1 than in T2, in particular for the inter-annual variability mode in the fall. The prediction skill against observations is better measured by the PrC analysis than by principal component analysis for all seasons, indicating the stronger capability of PrCA in extracting prediction targets. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54009
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada; State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, China; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tang Y.,Chen D.,Yan X.. Potential predictability of Northern America surface temperature in AGCMs and CGCMs[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-01-02)