DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940656211
论文题名: Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching
作者: Williamson D. ; Blaker A.T. ; Hampton C. ; Salter J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1299
结束页码: 1324
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model
; Emulators
; Ensembles
; HadCM3
; Tuning
英文摘要: We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing structural biases in climate models at the model development stage. We illustrate the method using an investigation of the potential to improve upon known ocean circulation biases in a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre Climate Model; HadCM3). In particular, we use history matching to investigate whether or not the behaviour of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is known to be too strong in HadCM3, represents a structural bias that could be corrected using the model parameters. We find that it is possible to improve the ACC strength using the parameters and observe that doing this leads to more realistic representations of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres, sea surface salinities (both globally and in the North Atlantic), sea surface temperatures in the sinking regions in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic Deep Water flows, global precipitation, wind fields and sea level pressure. We then use history matching to locate a region of parameter space predicted not to contain structural biases for ACC and SSTs that is around 1 % of the original parameter space. We explore qualitative features of this space and show that certain key ocean and atmosphere parameters must be tuned carefully together in order to locate climates that satisfy our chosen metrics. Our study shows that attempts to tune climate model parameters that vary only a handful of parameters relevant to a given process at a time will not be as successful or as efficient as history matching. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: EPSRC, National Eye Research Centre
; NERC, National Eye Research Centre
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54026
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Williamson D.,Blaker A.T.,Hampton C.,et al. Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-05-06)