DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84941425113
论文题名: Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes
作者: Christidis N. ; Stott P.A. ; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1547
结束页码: 1564
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic forcings
; Detection and attribution
; Regional temperature extremes
英文摘要: Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event attribution has provided pertinent scientific evidence for a number of such warm events for which the forced climate response rises above internal climatic variability. Although the demand for attribution assessments is higher shortly after an event occurs, most scientific studies become available several months later. A formal attribution methodology is employed here to pre-compute the changing odds of very warm years and seasons in regions across the world. Events are defined based on the exceedence of temperature thresholds and their changing odds are measured over a range of pre-specified thresholds, which means assessments can be made as soon as a new event happens. Optimal fingerprinting provides observationally constrained estimates of the global temperature response to external forcings from which regional information is extracted. This information is combined with estimates of internal variability to construct temperature distributions with and without the effect of anthropogenic influence. The likelihood of an event is computed for each distribution and the change in the odds estimated. Analyses are conducted with seven climate models to explore the model dependency of the results. Apart from colder regions and seasons, characterised by greater internal climate variability, the odds of warm events are found to have significantly increased and temperatures above the threshold of 1-in-10 year events during 1961–1990 have become at least twice as likely to occur. © 2014, Crown Copyright. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54029
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Sedgewick C183, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Christidis N.,Stott P.A.,Zwiers F.W.. Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-05-06)