globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2386-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940721522
论文题名:
Unprecedented recent warming rate and temperature variability over the east Tibetan Plateau inferred from Alpine treeline dendrochronology
作者: Shi C.; Masson-Delmotte V.; Daux V.; Li Z.; Carré M.; Moore J.C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期:2017-05-06
起始页码: 1367
结束页码: 1380
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Despite instrumental records showing recent large temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), only a few tree-ring temperature reconstructions do capture this warming trend. Here, we sampled 260 trees from seven Alpine treeline locations across the southeast TP. Standardized tree-ring width chronologies of Abies squamata and Sabina squamat were produced following Regional Curve Standardization detrending. The leading principal component of these records is well correlated with the regional summer (JJA) minimum temperature (MinT) (R2 = 0.47, P < 0.001, 1953–2009). Hence we produce a regional summer MinT reconstruction spanning the last 212 years. This reconstruction reveals a long-term persistent warming trend, starting in the 1820s, at a rate of 0.45 ± 0.09 °C/century (1820–2009). This trend is also detected since the 1820s in the Asian summer MinT reconstruction produced by the PAGES 2K project, with a very close warming rate (0.43 ± 0.08 °C/century, 1820–1989). Our record also displays an enhanced multi-decadal variability since the mid-twentieth century. The 1990s–2000s are the warmest of our whole record, due to the superposition of the gradual warming trend and decadal variability during this interval. The strongest decadal cooling occurs during the 1950s and the largest warming trend during the 1970s. The magnitude of warming from 1973 to 2003 was larger than the total warming trend from 1820s to 2009. Extreme events are also more frequent since 1950. The pattern of multi-decadal variability has similarities with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, suggesting common causality. CMIP5 historical simulations fail to capture both the magnitude and timing of this multi-decadal variability. The ensemble CMIP5 average produces a steady warming trend starting in the 1970s, which only accounts for about 60 % of the observed warming trend during this period. We conclude that TP summer temperature could reflect a climate response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, however modulated by multi-decadal variations common with the Atlantic sector. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54032
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; UM2-CNRS-IRD, Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier 2, CC065, Pl. Eugène Bataillon, Montpellier, France; Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland; Université de Versailles - Saint Quentin, Versailles, France

Recommended Citation:
Shi C.,Masson-Delmotte V.,Daux V.,et al. Unprecedented recent warming rate and temperature variability over the east Tibetan Plateau inferred from Alpine treeline dendrochronology[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-05-06)
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