DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2424-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84941415372
论文题名: Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season
作者: Vizy E.K. ; Cook K.H. ; Chimphamba J. ; McCusker B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1673
结束页码: 1698
语种: 英语
英文关键词: African rainfall
; Climate change impacts
; Kalahari anticyclone
; Malawi Growing season
; Regional climate model
; Thermal low
英文摘要: Regional climate model projections at 30-km resolution are used to predict future mid-century and late-century growing season changes over Malawi due to global warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 business-as-usual emissions forcing scenario. Three different methods for estimating growing season characteristics are applied and evaluated. All three methods yield reasonable growing season length, onset, and demise date estimates over Malawi given the wide range of uncertainty of the observations. The projections indicate the likelihood for a shorter growing season in the future over Malawi south of 13.5°S. At mid-century the growing season length is predicted to be 20–40 % (20–55 days) shorter over the southernmost districts and 5–20 % (5–30 days) shorter over the central districts. By late-century the length is predicted to be 25–55 % (20–70 days) shorter with significant differences extending into northern Malawi. The shorter growing season is primarily associated with an earlier demise date, as no significant change in the onset date is predicted. Analysis of the regional circulation and horizontal moisture flux transport indicates that the earlier demise is associated with an intensification of the thermal low over the Kalahari Desert to the south and west of Malawi and an expansion of the mid-tropospheric Kalahari anticyclone over southern Africa. The stronger thermal low/anticyclone enhances the moisture flux divergence over Malawi suppressing the convective activity at the end of the wet season. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54041
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, Austin, TX, United States; Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, P.O. Box 280, Zomba, Malawi; Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University, 330 Brooks Hall, 98 Beechurst Ave., Morgantown, WV, United States
Recommended Citation:
Vizy E.K.,Cook K.H.,Chimphamba J.,et al. Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-05-06)