DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84935015214
论文题名: Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends
作者: Mankin J.S. ; Diffenbaugh N.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1099
结束页码: 1116
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CCSM3
; Climate variability
; Global warming
; Snow
; Water availability
英文摘要: Snow is a vital resource for a host of natural and human systems. Global warming is projected to drive widespread decreases in snow accumulation by the end of the century, potentially affecting water, food, and energy supplies, seasonal heat extremes, and wildfire risk. However, over the next few decades, when the planning and implementation of current adaptation responses are most relevant, the snow response is more uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in regional and local precipitation trends. We use a large (40-member) single-model ensemble climate model experiment to examine the influence of precipitation variability on the direction and magnitude of near-term Northern Hemisphere snow trends. We find that near-term uncertainty in the sign of regional precipitation change does not cascade into uncertainty in the sign of regional snow accumulation change. Rather, temperature increases drive statistically robust consistency in the sign of future near-term snow accumulation trends, with all regions exhibiting reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, along with mean decreases in late-season snow accumulation. However, internal variability does create uncertainty in the magnitude of hemispheric and regional snow changes, including uncertainty as large as 33 % of the baseline mean. In addition, within the 40-member ensemble, many mid-latitude grid points exhibit at least one realization with a statistically significant positive trend in net snow accumulation, and at least one realization with a statistically significant negative trend. These results suggest that the direction of near-term snow accumulation change is robust at the regional scale, but that internal variability can influence the magnitude and direction of snow accumulation changes at the local scale, even in areas that exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54056
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, Stanford, CA, United States; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, Stanford, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mankin J.S.,Diffenbaugh N.S.. Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)