DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2317-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84934890600
论文题名: A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100
作者: Maris M.N.A. ; van Wessem J.M. ; van de Berg W.J. ; de Boer B. ; Oerlemans J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 837
结束页码: 851
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Ice sheet modelling
; Last Glacial Maximum
; Model validation
; Sea-level change
英文摘要: Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyr ago) until the year 2100 with the ice-dynamical model ANICE. We force the model with different temperature, surface mass balance and sea-level records to investigate the importance of these different aspects for the evolution of the ice sheet. Additionally, we compare the model output from 21 kyr ago until the present with observations to assess model performance in simulating the total grounded ice volume and the evolution of different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although there are some clear limitations of the model, we conclude that sea-level change has driven the deglaciation of the ice sheet, whereas future temperature change and the history of the ice sheet are the primary cause of changes in ice volume in the future. We estimate the change in grounded ice volume between its maximum (around 15 kyr ago) and the present-day to be between 8.4 and 12.5 m sea-level equivalent and the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the global mean sea level in 2100, with respect to 2000, to be −22 to 63 mm. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54070
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Maris M.N.A.,van Wessem J.M.,van de Berg W.J.,et al. A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)