globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027927815
论文题名:
Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events
作者: Krishnaswamy J.; Vaidyanathan S.; Rajagopalan B.; Bonell M.; Sankaran M.; Bhalla R.S.; Badiger S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 175
结束页码: 184
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamic linear models ; Generalised additive models ; Indo-Gangetic plain ; La Nina ; Western Ghats
英文摘要: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are widely recognized as major drivers of inter-annual variability of the Indian monsoon (IM) and extreme rainfall events (EREs). We assess the time-varying strength and non-linearity of these linkages using dynamic linear regression and Generalized Additive Models. Our results suggest that IOD has evolved independently of ENSO, with its influence on IM and EREs strengthening in recent decades when compared to ENSO, whose relationship with IM seems to be weakening and more uncertain. A unit change in IOD currently has a proportionately greater impact on IM. ENSO positively influences EREs only below a threshold of 100 mm day−1. Furthermore, there is a non-linear and positive relationship between IOD and IM totals and the frequency of EREs (>100 mm day−1). Improvements in modeling this complex system can enhance the forecasting accuracy of the IM and EREs. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54081
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; Foundation for Ecological Research, Advocacy and Learning (FERAL), Pondicherry Campus, 170/3 Morattandi, Auroville Post, Villupuram, Tamil Nadu, India; Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering and Co-operative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Centre for Water Law, Policy and Sciences Under the Auspices of UNESCO, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom; Ecology and Evolution Group, National Centre for Biological Sciences, TIFR, GKVK Campus, Bellary Road, Bangalore, India; School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Krishnaswamy J.,Vaidyanathan S.,Rajagopalan B.,et al. Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-01-02)
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