DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2306-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027926607
论文题名: Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models
作者: Kumar D. ; Mishra V. ; Ganguly A.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 441
结束页码: 453
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 models
; Gumbel distribution
; Model evaluation
; Wind extremes
英文摘要: Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25–100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54091
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 400 SN, 360 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, United States; Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, India
Recommended Citation:
Kumar D.,Mishra V.,Ganguly A.R.. Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-01-02)