DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2625-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937764723
论文题名: Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes
作者: Cheng L. ; Phillips T.J. ; AghaKouchak A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2947
结束页码: 2963
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate
; CMIP5
; Extremes
; Non-stationary
; Return level
; Temperature
英文摘要: The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are most subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54103
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: University of California, Irvine, E4130 Engineering Gateway, Irvine, CA, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cheng L.,Phillips T.J.,AghaKouchak A.. Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-11-12)