DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2276-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939898441
论文题名: Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden
作者: Gregersen I.B. ; Madsen H. ; Rosbjerg D. ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3155
结束页码: 3169
语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Atlantic pattern
; Extreme rainfall
; Multi-decadal oscillation
; Natural variation
英文摘要: A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general increase from 1874 to present and an oscillation with a cycle of 25–40 years. The magnitude of the extreme events also oscillates, but with a cycle of 15–30 years and a smaller amplitude. Regional analysis of a larger Danish dataset with a shorter observations period found a countrywide low period in 1970–1979. It is furthermore concluded that the oscillation signal along the west coast of Denmark is dominated by the changeable coastal weather of this region. The eastern part of Denmark shows a more consistent signal, which partly can be explained by an index derived from sea level pressure differences between Gibraltar and Haparanda. The identification of a cyclic pattern in the extreme rainfall is highly relevant for our understanding of the non-stationarities in flood hazard. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54119
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark; DHI, Agern Alle 5, Hørsholm, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Gregersen I.B.,Madsen H.,Rosbjerg D.,et al. Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-11-12)