DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2345-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939873382
论文题名: Investigating teleconnection drivers of bivariate heat waves in Florida using extreme value analysis
作者: Keellings D. ; Waylen P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3383
结束页码: 3391
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMO
; Bivariate extreme value analysis
; ENSO
; Florida
; Heat wave
英文摘要: Maximum and minimum daily temperatures from the second half of the twentieth century are examined using a high resolution dataset of 833 grid cells across the state of Florida. A bivariate extreme value analysis point process approach is used to model characteristics including the frequency, magnitude, duration, and timing of periods or heat waves during which both daily maximum and minimum temperatures exceed their respective 90th percentile thresholds. The temperature dataset is combined with indices of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) to explore the influence of these oscillations on heat wave characteristics in Florida. In order to investigate the influence of a time varying signal (ENSO and AMO) on heat waves the signals are introduced into non-stationary models as covariates in the location and log-transformed scale parameters. The improvements to the model obtained by introducing covariates are examined using the deviance statistic whereby the difference in negative log-likelihood values between two models is tested for significance using a Chi squared distribution. Significant improvements in the non-stationary models with ENSO and AMO covariates indicate spatially varying impacts in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of heat waves. In particular, the warm phase of the AMO brings heat waves earlier in the summertime while also increasing their magnitude, frequency, and duration. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54127
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Keellings D.,Waylen P.. Investigating teleconnection drivers of bivariate heat waves in Florida using extreme value analysis[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-11-12)