DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2196-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939885773
论文题名: Projected impact of twenty-first century ENSO changes on rainfall over Central America and northwest South America from CMIP5 AOGCMs
作者: Steinhoff D.F. ; Monaghan A.J. ; Clark M.P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1329
结束页码: 1349
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; ENSO
; Precipitation
; Teleconnections
英文摘要: Due to the importance that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has on rainfall over the tropical Americas, future changes in ENSO characteristics and teleconnections are important for regional hydroclimate. Projected changes to the ENSO mean state and characteristics, and the resulting impacts on rainfall anomalies over Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador during the twenty-first century are explored for several forcing scenarios using a suite of coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Mean-state warming of eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, drying of Central America and northern Colombia, and wetting of southwest Colombia and Ecuador are consistent with previous studies that used earlier versions of the AOGCMs. Current and projected future characteristics of ENSO (frequency, duration, amplitude) show a wide range of values across the various AOGCMs. The magnitude of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies are currently underestimated by most of the models, but the model ensembles generally simulate the correct sign of the anomalies across the seasons around the peak ENSO effects. While the models capture the broad present-day ENSO-related rainfall anomalies, there is not a clear sense of projected future changes in the precipitation anomalies. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: IDB, Inter-American Development Bank
; NSF, Inter-American Development Bank
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54142
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Steinhoff D.F.,Monaghan A.J.,Clark M.P.. Projected impact of twenty-first century ENSO changes on rainfall over Central America and northwest South America from CMIP5 AOGCMs[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-05-06)