| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-014-2286-2
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84925489020
|
| 论文题名: | An ensemble climate projection for Africa |
| 作者: | Buontempo C.; Mathison C.; Jones R.; Williams K.; Wang C.; McSweeney C.
|
| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
|
| ISSN: | 9307575
|
| 出版年: | 2015
|
| 卷: | 44, 期:2017-07-08 | | 起始页码: | 2097
|
| 结束页码: | 2118
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Africa
; Climate change
; CORDEX
; Downscaling
; Perturbed physics ensemble
; Regional climate modelling
|
| 英文摘要: | The Met Office Hadley Centre’s PRECIS regional climate modelling system has been used to generate a five member ensemble of climate projections for Africa over the 50 km resolution Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-Africa domain. The ensemble comprises the downscaling of a subset of the Hadley Centre’s perturbed physics global climate model (GCM) ensemble chosen to exclude ensemble members unable to represent the African climate realistically and then to capture the spread in outcomes from the projections of the remaining models. The PRECIS simulations were run from December 1949 to December 2100. The regional climate model (RCM) ensemble captures the annual cycle of temperatures well both for Africa as a whole and the sub-regions. It slightly overestimates precipitation over Africa as a whole and captures the annual cycle of rainfall for most of the African regions. The RCM ensemble substantially improve the patterns and magnitude of precipitation simulation compared to their driving GCM which is particularly noticeable in the Sahel for both the magnitude and timing of the wet season. Present-day simulations of the RCM ensemble are more similar to each other than those of the driving GCM ensemble which indicates that their climatologies are influenced significantly by the RCM formulation and less so by their driving GCMs. Consistent with this, the spread and magnitudes of the large-scale responses of the RCMs are often different than the driving GCMs and arguably more credible given the improved performance of the RCM. This also suggests that local climate forcing will be a significant driver of the regional response to climate change over Africa. © 2014, The Author(s). |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54157
|
| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Buontempo C.,Mathison C.,Jones R.,et al. An ensemble climate projection for Africa[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-07-08)
|
|
|