DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2177-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939882704
论文题名: Current and future climate variability associated with wintertime precipitation in alpine Australia
作者: Fiddes S.L. ; Pezza A.B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2571
结束页码: 2587
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alpine
; Australia
; Climate
; Rainfall
; Variability
英文摘要: The Australian Alps, located in the southeast corner of the continent, are home to important ecologies and industries, including water supply, hydroelectricity and ski resorts. Sharp topography and prevailing westerly winds generate a unique microclimate with cool temperatures and abundant precipitation and is crucial to much of greater southeastern Australia’s water supply. Here we study the western, high and eastern slopes separately, exploring the global climate drivers associated with wintertime precipitation variability. The results show that while total precipitation is significantly declining on the western and high slopes, the total rain is not significantly changing on the eastern side. These differing trends are thought be a result of the changing nature of the westerly storm track and the subtropical ridge. Interestingly, the west/high wintertime rainfall decline is seen primarily as a reduction in the intensity of events, as the number of rainfall days per season has remained relatively constant throughout the analysis. The synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation are identified and shown to be well correlated with the total seasonal precipitation, suggesting a great importance of the extreme weather signatures in modulating the longer term climate. This correlation is used to calculate a number of climate indices relying on dynamical indicators such as pressure and temperature gradients, helping simulate the rainfall variability within the area. By exploring contrasting Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 models from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industry Research Organization’s Representative Climate Futures Framework, we estimate using indices of the circulation dynamics that the west/high wintertime rainfall trend will continue to decline whilst rainfall in the eastern region will remain relatively stable. This result adds new light into future precipitation trends for the area, given the intrinsic difficulty of climate models to correctly represent precipitation behavior over the region. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54192
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Fiddes S.L.,Pezza A.B.. Current and future climate variability associated with wintertime precipitation in alpine Australia[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-09-10)