DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928703173
论文题名: Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
作者: Caron L.-P. ; Boudreault M. ; Bruyère C.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1801
结束页码: 1821
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation
; Atlantic variability
; Poisson regression
; Tropical cyclones
英文摘要: Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is known to oscillate between multi-annual periods of high and low activity. These changes have been linked to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), a mode of variability in Atlantic sea surface temperature which modifies the large-scale conditions of the tropical Atlantic. Cyclone activity is also modulated at higher frequencies by a series of other climate factors, with some of these influences appearing to be more consistent than others. Using the HURDAT2 database and a second set of tropical cyclone data corrected for possible missing storms in the earlier part of the record, we investigate, through Poisson regressions, the relationship between a series of climate variables and a series of metrics of seasonal Atlantic cyclone activity during both phases of the AMO. We find that, while some influences, such as El Niño Southern oscillation, remain present regardless of the AMO phase, other climate factors show an influence during only one of the two phases. During the negative phase, Sahel precipitation and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) are measured to play a role, while during the positive phase, the 11-year solar cycle and dust concentration over the Atlantic appear to be more important. Furthermore, we show that during the negative phase of the AMO, the NAO influences all our measures of tropical cyclone activity, and we go on to provide evidence that this is not simply due to changes in steering current, the mechanism by which the NAO is usually understood to impact Atlantic cyclone activity. Finally, we conclude by demonstrating that our results are robust to the sample size as well as to the choice of the statistical model. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54212
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Rossby Centre, Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; Climate Forecasting Unit, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Mathematics, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montréal, Canada; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Caron L.-P.,Boudreault M.,Bruyère C.L.. Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-07-08)