DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2187-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939896236
论文题名: A study of the predictability of sea surface temperature over the tropics
作者: Chen M. ; Kumar A. ; Wang W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1767
结束页码: 1776
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability over tropics
; Sea surface Temperature
; Seasonal mean predictability
英文摘要: In this study, reasons for spatial variability in prediction skill of seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated. The analysis explores the connection between the spatial variation of SST prediction skill in tropical latitudes and local simultaneous correlation between observed SST and precipitation (SST-P). The results show that high (low) SST prediction skills and slow (fast) decay in skill with lead time are generally collocated with large positive (weakly positive or negative) SST-P correlations. The reasons for spatial variation in SST-P correlation can be explained by whether the primary forcing is from the ocean to the atmosphere or vice versa. Over regions where the ocean is generally known to force the atmosphere, it is found that SST-P correlation has large positive values. Over regions where the atmosphere forces ocean, SST-P correlation is weak due to intrinsically unpredictable nature of atmospheric variability. The physical explanation for spatial variation in SST-P correlation, and apparent link between the spatial variations in SST-P correlation and spatial variations in skill of SST predictions also establishes a physical basis for the latter. As a corollary, low SST prediction skill in coupled forecast models over certain geographical regions may be due to the inherent limits on predictability in addition to the contribution from model biases or initialization errors. © 2014, Springer-Verlag (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54214
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, RM#3011, W/NP52, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chen M.,Kumar A.,Wang W.. A study of the predictability of sea surface temperature over the tropics[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-07-08)