DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2239-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939898357
论文题名: Simulating weather regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model
作者: Christensen H.M. ; Moroz I.M. ; Palmer T.N.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2195
结束页码: 2214
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Lorenz ’96 system
; Model uncertainty
; Perturbed parameter schemes
; Stochastic physics
; Weather regimes
英文摘要: Representing model uncertainty is important for both numerical weather and climate prediction. Stochastic parametrisation schemes are commonly used for this purpose in weather prediction, while perturbed parameter approaches are widely used in the climate community. The performance of these two representations of model uncertainty is considered in the context of the idealised Lorenz ’96 system, in terms of their ability to capture the observed regime behaviour of the system. These results are applicable to the atmosphere, where evidence points to the existence of persistent weather regimes, and where it is desirable that climate models capture this regime behaviour. The stochastic parametrisation schemes considerably improve the representation of regimes when compared to a deterministic model: both the structure and persistence of the regimes are found to improve. The stochastic parametrisation scheme represents the small scale variability present in the full system, which enables the system to explore a larger portion of the system’s attractor, improving the simulated regime behaviour. It is important that temporally correlated noise is used in the stochastic parametrisation—white noise schemes performed similarly to the deterministic model. In contrast, the perturbed parameter ensemble was unable to capture the regime structure of the attractor, with many individual members exploring only one regime. This poor performance was not evident in other climate diagnostics. Finally, a ‘climate change’ experiment was performed, where a change in external forcing resulted in changes to the regime structure of the attractor. The temporally correlated stochastic schemes captured these changes well. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: ERC, European Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54229
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Christensen H.M.,Moroz I.M.,Palmer T.N.. Simulating weather regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-07-08)