DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939896588
论文题名: Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
作者: Wang W. ; Zhou W. ; Li Y. ; Wang X. ; Wang D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2859
结束页码: 2872
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; Extreme value theory
; Hot spell model
英文摘要: A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960–2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191–205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: CAS, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54233
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CSIRO Computational Informatics, Wembley, WA, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang W.,Zhou W.,Li Y.,et al. Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-09-10)