globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1813-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894348463
论文题名:
Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system. Part II: Boreal winter and spring seasons
作者: Li H.; Misra V.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期:2017-05-06
起始页码: 1449
结束页码: 1468
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO ; Forecast skill ; Seasonal predictability
英文摘要: We examine the Florida Climate Institute-Florida State University Seasonal Hindcast (FISH50) skill at a relatively high (50 km grid) resolution two tiered Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) for boreal winter and spring seasons at zero and one season lead respectively. The AGCM in FISH50 is forced with bias corrected forecast sea surface temperature averaged from two dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The comparison of the hindcast skills of precipitation and surface temperature from FISH50 with the coupled ocean-atmosphere models reveals that the probabilistic skill is nearly comparable in the two types of forecast systems (with some improvements in FISH50 outside of the global tropics). Furthermore the drop in skill in going from zero lead (boreal winter) to one season lead (boreal spring) is also similar in FISH50 and the coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Both the forecast systems also show that surface temperature hindcasts have more skill than the precipitation hindcasts and that land based precipitation hindcasts have slightly lower skill than the corresponding hindcasts over the ocean. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; USGS, U.S. Geological Survey ; USDA, U.S. Department of Agriculture
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54254
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 Johnson Bldg., Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, United States; Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, P.O. Box 3064520, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-4520, United States; Florida Climate Institute, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 Johnson Bldg., Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, United States

Recommended Citation:
Li H.,Misra V.. Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system. Part II: Boreal winter and spring seasons[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-05-06)
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