DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1704-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894291365
论文题名: Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
作者: Yuan C. ; Tozuka T. ; Luo J.-J. ; Yamagata T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1291
结束页码: 1308
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole
; IOD
; Seasonal prediction
; South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole
; Southern African summer precipitation
; Subtropical SST anomalies
英文摘要: Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes is assessed using the SINTEX-F coupled model. Despite the known difficulty in predicting subtropical climate due to large internal variability of the atmosphere and weak ocean-atmosphere coupling, it is shown for the first time that the coupled model can successfully predict the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD) 1 season ahead, and the prediction skill is better than the persistence in all the 1-12 month lead hindcast experiments. There is a prediction barrier in austral winter due to the seasonal phase locking of the SASD to austral summer. The prediction skill is lower for the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD) than for the SASD, and only slightly better than the persistence till 6-month lead because of the low predictability of the sea surface temperature anomaly in its southwestern pole. However, for some strong IOSD events in the last three decades, the model can predict them 1 season ahead. The co-occurrence of the negative SASD and IOSD in 1997/1998 austral summer can be predicted from July 1st of 1997. This is because the negative sea level pressure anomalies over the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean in September-October (November-December) that trigger the occurrence of the negative SASD and IOSD are related to the well predicted tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). Owing to the overall good performances of the SINTEX-F model in predicting the SASD, some strong IOSD, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the prediction skill of the southern African summer precipitation is high in the SINTEX-F model. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: JST, Japan Science and Technology Agency
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54259
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan; Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan; Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia; Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Yuan C.,Tozuka T.,Luo J.-J.,et al. Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-05-06)