DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894310392
论文题名: Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5
作者: van den Hurk B. ; van Oldenborgh G.J. ; Lenderink G. ; Hazeleger W. ; Haarsma R. ; de Vries H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1683
结束页码: 1697
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Climate change
; CMIP5
; Regional climate scenarios
英文摘要: For the construction of regional climate change scenarios spanning a relevant fraction of the spread in climate model projections, an inventory of major drivers of regional climate change is needed. For the Netherlands, a previous set of regional climate change scenarios was based on the decomposition of local temperature/precipitation changes into components directly linked to the level of global warming, and components related to changes in the regional atmospheric circulation. In this study this decomposition is revisited utilizing the extensive modelling results from the CMIP5 model ensemble in support for the 5th IPCC assessment. Rather than selecting a number of GCMs based on performance metrics or relevant response features, a regression technique was developed to utilize all available model projections. The large number of projections allows a quantification of the separate contributions of emission scenarios, systematic model responses and natural variability to the total likelihood range. Natural variability plays a minor role in modelled differences in the global mean temperature response, but contributes for up to 50 % to the range of mean sea level pressure responses and local precipitation. Using key indicators ("steering variables") for the temperature and circulation response, the range in local seasonal mean temperature and precipitation responses can be fairly well reproduced. © 2013 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54262
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), PO Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
van den Hurk B.,van Oldenborgh G.J.,Lenderink G.,et al. Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-05-06)