| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-013-1900-z
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84894313256
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| 论文题名: | Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway |
| 作者: | Simpson M.J.R.; Breili K.; Kierulf H.P.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 42, 期:2017-05-06 | | 起始页码: | 1405
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| 结束页码: | 1424
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Glacial isostatic adjustment
; Norway
; Sea-level projections
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| 英文摘要: | In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between -0.2 to 0.3 m (1-sigma ± 0.13 m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6 °C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85 m (min/max ± 0.45 m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change. © 2014 The Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54267
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Geodetic Institute, Norwegian Mapping Authority, Hønefoss, Norway; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Simpson M.J.R.,Breili K.,Kierulf H.P.. Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-05-06)
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