DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1831-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894310485
论文题名: Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2
作者: Liu X. ; Yang S. ; Li Q. ; Kumar A. ; Weaver S. ; Liu S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1487
结束页码: 1508
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global monsoons
; NCEP CFSv2
; Subseasonal prediction biases
; Subseasonal prediction skill
英文摘要: Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54280
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, 510275 Guangdong, China; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun, Jilin, China
Recommended Citation:
Liu X.,Yang S.,Li Q.,et al. Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-05-06)