DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1828-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894927339
论文题名: Is the storminess in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis really inconsistent with observations? A reply to the comment by Krueger et al. (2013b)
作者: Wang X.L. ; Feng Y. ; Compo G.P. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Allan R.J. ; Swail V.R. ; Sardeshmukh P.D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1113
结束页码: 1125
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cyclone activity
; Geostrophic wind extremes
; Low-frequency variability
; Trend analysis
英文摘要: In a recent study of trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of Twentieth Century Reanalyses, we concluded that "For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations". This conclusion has been challenged by Krueger et al. (Clim Dyn, submitted, 2013b), because a recent study (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00309.1, by the same lead author) comparing annual 95th percentiles (P95) of geostrophic wind speed (geo-wind) derived from surface pressure observations and from the 20CR found that "20CR-geostrophic storminess deviates to a large extent from the observation-based curve" in the period prior to 1950. In this reply, we show that our conclusion is valid; and we clarify that several factors contribute to the reported inconsistencies between the 20CR and observation-based geo-wind extremes. These include the choice of index that is used to represent the temporal variation of extremes (e.g., annual vs. seasonal percentiles), the use of different sampling intervals (6-hourly vs. 3-hourly), and the presence of very large errors in the observations that were not identified, corrected, or excluded in any of the previous studies of observation-based geo-wind extremes. We show that the time series of consecutive seasonal P95 geo-winds derived from the observations and from 20CR are in good agreement back to about 1893, with some deviation earlier when the observations (especially digitized data) remain limited and are more uncertain. We find that the correlation between the 20CR and observation-based geo-wind extremes (P95) time series for the full 134-year record is highly significant statistically, with and without the correction or exclusion of the newly identified erroneous SLP values. The agreement between 20CR and observations is further improved after the correction or exclusion of these erroneous values. © 2013 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54294
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada; Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, VIC, BC, Canada; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Wang X.L.,Feng Y.,Compo G.P.,et al. Is the storminess in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis really inconsistent with observations? A reply to the comment by Krueger et al. (2013b)[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-03-04)