| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-013-1709-9
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84895046217
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| 论文题名: | Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change |
| 作者: | Tokmakian R.; Challenor P.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 42, 期:2017-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 823
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| 结束页码: | 842
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | CMIP3
; Emulators
; GCM
; Multi-model
; Ocean
; Uncertainty
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| 英文摘要: | This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM's heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble. We illustrate how to (1) construct an ensemble based on experiment design methods, (2) construct and evaluate an emulator for a particular metric of a complex model, (3) validate the emulator using observational estimates and explore the input space with respect to implausible outcomes and (4) contribute to the understanding of uncertainties within a multi-model ensemble. Finally, we estimate the most likely value for heat content change and its uncertainty for the model, with respect to both observations and the uncertainty in the value for the input parameters. © 2013 Springer-Verlag (outside the USA). |
| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54298
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Bldg 232, Monterey, CA, 93943, United States; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Tokmakian R.,Challenor P.. Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-03-04)
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