DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1841-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894929284
论文题名: Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP
作者: Lee J.-W. ; Hong S.-Y. ; Chang E.-C. ; Suh M.-S. ; Kang H.-S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 733
结束页码: 747
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CORDEX
; East Asia
; GRIMs
; RCP scenario
英文摘要: This study assesses future climate change over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system-Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by two types of future climate scenarios produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2); the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report (AR5). Analyses for the current (1980-2005) climate are performed to evaluate the RMP's ability to reproduce precipitation and temperature. Two different future (2006-2050) simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate the climatic change over East Asia centered in Korea. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of precipitation and temperature. The spatial distribution of the simulated large-scale features and precipitation by the RMP is generally less reflective of current climatic conditions than that is given by the HG2, but their inter-annual variations in East Asia are better captured by the RMP. Furthermore, the RMP shows higher reproducibility of climate extremes including excessive heat wave and precipitation events over South Korea. In the future, strong warming is distinctly coupled with intensified monsoonal precipitation over East Asia. In particular, extreme weather conditions are increased and intensified over South Korea as follows: (1) The frequency of heat wave events with temperature greater than 30 °C is projected to increase by 131 and 111 % in the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 downscaling, relative to the current climate. (2) The RCP 8.5 downscaling shows the frequency and variability of heavy rainfall to increase by 24 and 31.5 %, respectively, while the statistics given by the RCP 4.5 downscaling are similar to those of the current climate. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54319
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749, South Korea; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Kongju National University, Gongju, Chungnam, South Korea; National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Lee J.-W.,Hong S.-Y.,Chang E.-C.,et al. Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-03-04)