globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1652-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84891633365
论文题名:
Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: Tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level
作者: Haigh I.D.; Wijeratne E.M.S.; MacPherson L.R.; Pattiaratchi C.B.; Mason M.S.; Crompton R.P.; George S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 121
结束页码: 138
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australia ; Extra-tropical cyclones ; Extreme water levels ; Hurricanes ; Return levels ; Return periods ; Storm surges ; Tides ; Tropical cyclones
英文摘要: The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54334
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3Z, United Kingdom; School of Environmental Systems Engineering and UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, M470, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia; Risk Frontiers, Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Haigh I.D.,Wijeratne E.M.S.,MacPherson L.R.,et al. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: Tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-01-02)
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