DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1891-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905113577
论文题名: Tropical pacific forcing of a 1998-1999 climate shift: Observational analysis and climate model results for the boreal spring season
作者: Lyon B. ; Barnston A.G. ; DeWitt D.G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 893
结束页码: 909
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate shift
; Decadal variability
; Drought
; East Africa
; Pacific
英文摘要: Observational data and climate model simulations and experiments are utilized to document an abrupt shift in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated atmospheric conditions, which occurred in 1998-1999. Emphasis is placed on the March-May (MAM) season, as the motivation for the work is to extend a recent study that reported an abrupt decline in East African MAM rainfall at that time. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of MAM SSTs over the last century following the removal of the concurrent influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and global warming trend by linear regression reveals a pattern of multidecadal variability in the Pacific similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Examination of MAM precipitation variations since 1940 indicates, among other findings, that recurrent drought events since 1999 in East Africa, central-southwest Asia, parts of eastern Australia and the southwestern US are all regional manifestations of a global scale multidecadal pattern. Associated shifts in the low-level wind field and upper-level stationary waves are discussed. Simulations using an atmospheric climate model forced with observed, global SSTs capture many of the salient precipitation and atmospheric circulation features associated with the observed shift. Further, when the model is forced only with observed SSTs from the tropical Pacific it also captures many of the observed atmospheric changes, including the abrupt shift in 1999. The results point to the fundamental role played by the tropical Pacific in driving the response to multidecadal variability of SSTs in the basin and provide important context for recent seasonal climate extremes in several regions of the globe. © 2013 The Author(s). 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54337
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY, 10964, United States; NOAA/NWS, WA, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lyon B.,Barnston A.G.,DeWitt D.G.. Tropical pacific forcing of a 1998-1999 climate shift: Observational analysis and climate model results for the boreal spring season[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-03-04)