DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1967-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906766634
论文题名: What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?
作者: Kwiatkowski L. ; Halloran P.R. ; Mumby P.J. ; Stephenson D.B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1483
结束页码: 1496
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; Coral bleaching
; Haar wavelets
; Ocean resolution
; Regional modelling
; Spatial scales
英文摘要: Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54358
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Kwiatkowski L.,Halloran P.R.,Mumby P.J.,et al. What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-05-06)