DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1982-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906099928
论文题名: Impact of land-atmospheric coupling in CFSv2 on drought prediction
作者: Roundy J.K. ; Ferguson C.R. ; Wood E.F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 421
结束页码: 434
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFS
; Drought
; Land-atmosphere interactions
; Seasonal forecasts
英文摘要: Recent summers in the United States have been plagued by intense droughts that have caused significant damage to crops and have had a large impact on society. The ability to forecasts such events would allow for preparations that could help reduce the impact on society. Coupled land-atmosphere-ocean models were created to provide such forecasts but there are large uncertainties associated with their predictions. The predictive skill of these models is particularly low during the convective season due to the weaker connections with the oceans and an increase in the land-atmosphere interactions. To better understand the degradation of forecasts skill during the summer months and its connection to the land-atmosphere interactions we analyze National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in terms of its climatological land-atmosphere interactions. To do this we use a recently developed classification of land-atmosphere interactions and other diagnostic variables to compare the reanalysis from the Climate Forecast System (CFSR) with CFSv2 re-forecasts (CFSRR) over the period 1982-2009. Coupling in the CFSRR tends toward the wet coupling regime for most areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Although the specific mechanism driving CFSRR to wet coupling state varies by region, the overall cause is enhanced vegetation rooting depth, originally implemented to address a near-surface warm bias in CFSR. The long-term tendency to wet coupling precludes the forecast model from consistently predicting and maintaining drought over the continental US. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54402
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Engineering Quad, Princeton, NJ, 08544, United States; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Roundy J.K.,Ferguson C.R.,Wood E.F.. Impact of land-atmospheric coupling in CFSv2 on drought prediction[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-01-02)