globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2021-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906076619
论文题名:
Developing a likely climate scenario from multiple regional climate model simulations with an optimal weighting factor
作者: Eum H.-I.; Gachon P.; Laprise R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 11
结束页码: 35
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Comprehensive weighting factor ; Differential evolution algorithm ; Ensemble simulations ; Probabilistic climate change scenarios ; Regional climate models ; Uncertainties analysis
英文摘要: This study presents a performance-based comprehensive weighting factor that accounts for the skill of different regional climate models (RCMs), including the effect of the driving lateral boundary condition coming from either atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) or reanalyses. A differential evolution algorithm is employed to identify the optimal relative importance of five performance metrics, and corresponding weighting factors, that include the relative absolute mean error (RAME), annual cycle, spatial pattern, extremes and multi-decadal trend. Based on cumulative density functions built by weighting factors of various RCMs/AOGCMs ensemble simulations, current and future climate projections were then generated to identify the level of uncertainty in the climate scenarios. This study selected the areas of southern Ontario and Québec in Canada as a case study. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Three performance metrics were found essential, having the greater relative importance: the RAME, annual variability and multi-decadal trend. (2) The choice of driving conditions from the AOGCM had impacts on the comprehensive weighting factor, particularly for the winter season. (3) Combining climate projections based on the weighting factors significantly increased the consistency and reduced the spread among models in the future climate changes. These results imply that the weighting factors play a more important role in reducing the effects of outliers on plausible future climate conditions in regions where there is a higher level of variability in RCM/AOGCM simulations. As a result of weighting, substantial increases in the projected warming were found in the southern part of the study area during summer, and the whole region during winter, compared to the simple equal weighting scheme from RCM runs. This study is an initial step toward developing a likelihood procedure for climate scenarios on a regional scale using equal or different probabilities for all models. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: DOE, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada ; NOAA, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada ; NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada ; NSF, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54429
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Water-Climate Impact Research Centre (W-CIRC), Environment Canada, PO Box 3060, STN CSC, VIC, BC, V8W 3R4, Canada; Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale (ESCER), University of Québec at Montreal, 201 Avenue Président-Kennedy, Montreal, QC, H2X 3Y7, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Place Bonaventure, Portail Nord-Est, 800 rue de la Gauchet, Montreal, QC, H5A 1L9, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Eum H.-I.,Gachon P.,Laprise R.. Developing a likely climate scenario from multiple regional climate model simulations with an optimal weighting factor[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-01-02)
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