DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1914-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897571896
论文题名: An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming
作者: Gleixner S. ; Keenlyside N. ; Hodges K.I. ; Tseng W.-L. ; Bengtsson L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2147
结束页码: 2157
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; ECHAM5
; Southern hemisphere
; Tropical cyclones
; Tropical Walker Circulation
英文摘要: Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969-1990) and future (21C; 2069-2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: DFG, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54439
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allegaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; NERC Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Gleixner S.,Keenlyside N.,Hodges K.I.,et al. An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-07-08)