DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2078-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893170251
论文题名: Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region
作者: Perez J. ; Menendez M. ; Mendez F.J. ; Losada I.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2663
结束页码: 2680
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Downscaling
; General circulation models
; Projections
; Skill
; Weather types
英文摘要: One of the main sources of uncertainty in estimating climate projections affected by global warming is the choice of the global climate model (GCM). The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of GCMs from CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. It is well known that the seasonal and interannual variability of surface inland variables (e.g. precipitation and snow) and ocean variables (e.g. wave height and storm surge) are linked to the atmospheric circulation patterns. Thus, an automatic synoptic classification, based on weather types, has been used to assess whether GCMs are able to reproduce spatial patterns and climate variability. Three important factors have been analyzed: the skill of GCMs to reproduce the synoptic situations, the skill of GCMs to reproduce the historical inter-annual variability and the consistency of GCMs experiments during twenty-first century projections. The results of this analysis indicate that the most skilled GCMs in the study region are UKMO-HadGEM2, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2(hires) for CMIP3 scenarios and ACCESS1.0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and CMCC-CM for CMIP5 scenarios. These models are therefore recommended for the estimation of future regional multi-model projections of surface variables driven by the atmospheric circulation in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54457
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Perez J.,Menendez M.,Mendez F.J.,et al. Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-09-10)