globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2127-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939873804
论文题名:
Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO
作者: Jeong H.-I.; Ahn J.-B.; Lee J.-Y.; Alessandri A.; Hendon H.H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 44, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 1073
结束页码: 1091
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate regime shift ; Decadal variability ; El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ; Multi-model ensemble (MME) ; Seasonal predictability and prediction ; Teleconnection
英文摘要: A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December–January–February during the period of 1972–2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972–1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989–2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: KMA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54489
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea; Institute of Environmental Studies, Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea; Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile, Rome, Italy; University of Hawaii/International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI, United States; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Jeong H.-I.,Ahn J.-B.,Lee J.-Y.,et al. Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,44(2017-03-04)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Jeong H.-I.]'s Articles
[Ahn J.-B.]'s Articles
[Lee J.-Y.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Jeong H.-I.]'s Articles
[Ahn J.-B.]'s Articles
[Lee J.-Y.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Jeong H.-I.]‘s Articles
[Ahn J.-B.]‘s Articles
[Lee J.-Y.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.