DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1855-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902003448
论文题名: Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using general circulation model over an international wetland
作者: Etemadi H. ; Samadi S. ; Sharifikia M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2899
结束页码: 2920
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arid region
; Climate change
; Regression-based statistical downscaling model
; Uncertainty analysis
; Wetland management
英文摘要: Regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is an appropriate method which broadly uses to resolve the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, the assessment of uncertainty propagation linked with climatic variables is essential to any climate change impact study. This study presents a procedure to characterize uncertainty analysis of two GCM models link with Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and SDSM in one of the most vulnerable international wetland, namely "Shadegan" in an arid region of Southwest Iran. In the case of daily temperature, uncertainty is estimated by comparing monthly mean and variance of downscaled and observed daily data at a 95 % confidence level. Uncertainties were then evaluated from comparing monthly mean dry and wet spell lengths and their 95 % CI in daily precipitation downscaling using 1987-2005 interval. The uncertainty results indicated that the LARS-WG is the most proficient model at reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data at a 95 % uncertainty bounds while the SDSM model is the least capable in this respect. The results indicated a sequences uncertainty analysis at three different climate stations and produce significantly different climate change responses at 95 % CI. Finally the range of plausible climate change projections suggested a need for the decision makers to augment their long-term wetland management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change impacts. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54502
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, United States; Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208, United States; Department of Remote Sensing, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran; Department of Environmental Science, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Etemadi H.,Samadi S.,Sharifikia M.. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using general circulation model over an international wetland[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-11-12)