DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1770-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897578132
论文题名: Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models
作者: Masters T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2173
结束页码: 2181
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate feedback
; Climate sensitivity
; CMIP model sensitivity
; Ocean heat uptake
英文摘要: Climate sensitivity is estimated based on 0-2,000 m ocean heat content and surface temperature observations from the second half of the 20th century and first decade of the 21st century, using a simple energy balance model and the change in the rate of ocean heat uptake to determine the radiative restoration strength over this time period. The relationship between this 30-50 year radiative restoration strength and longer term effective sensitivity is investigated using an ensemble of 32 model configurations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting a strong correlation between the two. The mean radiative restoration strength over this period for the CMIP5 members examined is 1.16 Wm-2K-1, compared to 2.05 Wm-2K-1 from the observations. This suggests that temperature in these CMIP5 models may be too sensitive to perturbations in radiative forcing, although this depends on the actual magnitude of the anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the modern period. The potential change in the radiative restoration strength over longer timescales is also considered, resulting in a likely (67 %) range of 1.5-2.9 K for equilibrium climate sensitivity, and a 90 % confidence interval of 1.2-5.1 K. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54532
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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Recommended Citation:
Masters T.. Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-07-08)