DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897575850
论文题名: Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
作者: Chung C.T.Y. ; Power S.B. ; Arblaster J.M. ; Rashid H.A. ; Roff G.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1837
结束页码: 1856
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate variability
; El-Niño Southern Oscillation
; Global warming
英文摘要: Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Niño events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Niño SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO2 levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Niño. The precipitation response to El Niño is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Niño event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: CSIRO, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54563
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Chung C.T.Y.,Power S.B.,Arblaster J.M.,et al. Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-07-08)