globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2139-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939892332
论文题名:
Probabilistic reconstructions of local temperature and soil moisture from tree-ring data with potentially time-varying climatic response
作者: Tolwinski-Ward S.E.; Tingley M.P.; Evans M.N.; Hughes M.K.; Nychka D.W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 44, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 791
结束页码: 806
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian hierarchical modeling ; Biological–statistical modeling ; Multiproxy paleoclimate reconstruction ; Time-varying climate-paleodata relationship ; Tree-ring width
英文摘要: We explore a probabilistic, hierarchical Bayesian approach to the simultaneous reconstruction of local temperature and soil moisture from tree-ring width observations. The model explicitly allows for differing calibration and reconstruction interval responses of the ring-width series to climate due to slow changes in climatology coupled with the biological climate thresholds underlying tree-ring growth. A numerical experiment performed using synthetically generated data demonstrates that bimodality can occur in posterior estimates of past climate when the data do not contain enough information to determine whether temperature or moisture limitation controlled reconstruction-interval tree-ring variability. This manifestation of nonidentifiability is a result of the many-to-one mapping from bivariate climate to time series of tree-ring widths. The methodology is applied to reconstruct temperature and soil moisture conditions over the 1080–1129 C.E. interval at Methusalah Walk in the White Mountains of California, where co-located isotopic dendrochronologies suggest that observed moisture limitations on tree growth may have been alleviated. Our model allows for assimilation of both data sources, and computation of the probability of a change in the climatic controls on ring-width relative to those observed in the calibration period. While the probability of a change in control is sensitive to the choice of prior distribution, the inference that conditions were moist and cool at Methuselah Walk during the 1080–1129 C.E. interval is robust. Results also illustrate the power of combining multiple proxy data sets to reduce uncertainty in reconstructions of paleoclimate. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54570
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Meteorology and Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Tolwinski-Ward S.E.,Tingley M.P.,Evans M.N.,et al. Probabilistic reconstructions of local temperature and soil moisture from tree-ring data with potentially time-varying climatic response[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,44(2017-03-04)
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