DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2108-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896421297
论文题名: Irregularity and decadal variation in ENSO: a simplified model based on Principal Oscillation Patterns
作者: Gehne M. ; Kleeman R. ; Trenberth K.E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 12 起始页码: 3327
结束页码: 3350
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO predictability
; ENSO variations
; POPs
; Spectral analysis
; Tropical-extratropical interactions
英文摘要: A new method of estimating the decay time, mean period and forcing statistics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been found. It uses a two-dimensional stochastically forced damped linear oscillator model with the model parameters estimated from a Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis and associated observed power spectra. It makes use of extended observational time series of 150 years of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) as well as climate model output. This approach is motivated by clear physical relationships that SST and SLP POP patterns have to the ENSO cycle, as well as to each other, indicating that they represent actual physical modes of the climate system. Moreover, the leading POP mode accounts for 20–50 % of the variance on interannual time scales. The POP real part is highly correlated with several Niño indices near zero lag while the imaginary part exhibits a 6–9 month lead time and thus is a precursor. The observed POP power spectra show markedly different behavior for the peak and precursor, the former having more power at ENSO frequencies and the latter dominating at low frequencies. The results realistically suggest a period of oscillation of 4–6 years and a decay time of 8 months, which corresponds to the practical ENSO prediction limit. A fundamental finding of this approach is that the difference between the observed peak and precursor spectra at low frequencies can be related to the forcing statistics using the simple model, as well as to the difference between patterns of decadal and interannual variability in the Pacific. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54578
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; New York University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gehne M.,Kleeman R.,Trenberth K.E.. Irregularity and decadal variation in ENSO: a simplified model based on Principal Oscillation Patterns[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(12)