DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2360-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84920843313
论文题名: Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions
作者: Bombardi R.J. ; Zhu J. ; Marx L. ; Huang B. ; Chen H. ; Lu J. ; Krishnamurthy L. ; Krishnamurthy V. ; Colfescu I. ; Kinter J.L. ; III ; Kumar A. ; Hu Z.-Z. ; Moorthi S. ; Tripp P. ; Wu X. ; Schneider E.K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 44, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 543
结束页码: 557
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biases
; CFSv2
; CMIP5
; Decadal forecast and prediction
; Skill
; Volcanic forcing
英文摘要: Retrospective decadal forecasts were undertaken using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Decadal forecasts were performed separately by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), with the centers using two different analyses for the ocean initial conditions the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis. COLA also examined the sensitivity to the inclusion of forcing by specified volcanic aerosols. Biases in the CFSv2 for both sets of initial conditions include cold midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and rapid melting of sea ice associated with warm polar oceans. Forecasts from the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis showed strong weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), eventually approaching the weaker AMOC associated with CFSR. The decadal forecasts showed high predictive skill over the Indian, the western Pacific, and the Atlantic Oceans and low skill over the central and eastern Pacific. The volcanic forcing shows only small regional differences in predictability of surface temperature at 2m (T2m) in comparison to forecasts without volcanic forcing, especially over the Indian Ocean. An ocean heat content (OHC) budget analysis showed that the OHC has substantial memory, indicating potential for the decadal predictability of T2m; however, the model has a systematic drift in global mean OHC. The results suggest that the reduction of model biases may be the most productive path towards improving the model’s decadal forecasts. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54583
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, United States; National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, United States; Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bombardi R.J.,Zhu J.,Marx L.,et al. Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,44(2017-01-02)