DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2050-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84892768880
论文题名: Impact of climate sensitivity and polar amplification on projections of Greenland Ice Sheet loss
作者: Fyke J. ; Eby M. ; Mackintosh A. ; Weaver A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2249
结束页码: 2260
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate sensitivity
; Greenland Ice Sheet
; Polar amplification
英文摘要: The future rate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) deglaciation and the future contribution of GrIS deglaciation to sea level rise will depend critically on the magnitude of northern hemispheric polar amplification and global equilibrium climate sensitivity. Here, these relationships are analyzed using an ensemble of multi-century coupled ice-sheet/climate model simulations seeded with observationally-constrained initial conditions and then integrated forward under tripled preindustrial CO2. Polar amplifications and climate sensitivities were varied between ensemble members in order to bracket current uncertainty in polar amplification and climate sensitivity. A large inter-ensemble spread in mean GrIS air temperature, albedo and surface mass balance trends stemming from this uncertainty resulted in GrIS ice volume loss ranging from 5 to 40 % of the original ice volume after 500 years. The large dependence of GrIS deglaciation on polar amplification and climate sensitivity that we find indicates that the representation of these processes in climate models will exert a strong control on any simulated predictions of multi-century GrIS evolution. Efforts to reduce polar amplification and equilibrium climate sensitivity uncertainty will therefore play a critical role in constraining projections of GrIS deglaciation and sea level rise in a future high-CO2 world. © 2014, Springer-Verlag (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54584
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Los Alamos National Laboratory, MS B216, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Fyke J.,Eby M.,Mackintosh A.,et al. Impact of climate sensitivity and polar amplification on projections of Greenland Ice Sheet loss[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-07-08)